Few forces reshape the American housing market as swiftly and decisively as war. While most homebuyers focus on their credit scores and down payments, the rate they’re quoted on a 30-year mortgage has always had a shadow history — one written in geopolitics, military campaigns, and the price of oil. The relationship stretches back decades.

In the decades following World War II, the American mortgage market was a model of stability. Interest rates were modest, the federal government had deliberately suppressed bond yields to help manage wartime debt, and the newly created 30-year fixed-rate mortgage — championed by the Federal Housing Administration — made homeownership accessible to millions of returning

When most people think about mortgage rates, they picture their bank or lender setting the number arbitrarily. In reality, the single biggest driver of what you’ll pay on a 30-year fixed mortgage is something most homebuyers never watch: the bond market — specifically, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. When investors feel uncertain about